House of War

Via Freakonomics, a new paper on climate change. Melissa Dell, Benjamin F. Jones, and Benjamin A. Olken examine historical data of the effects of climate change (meaning higher temperatures) on economic growth and come to conclusions that may, or may not, surprise you. Their findings are threefold:

• Higher temperatures effect economic growth, not just output.
• Higher temperatures have a range of effects, including reduced agricultural and industrial output, aggregate investment and political instability.
• Higher temperatures only effect poor countries; in rich countries climate change has had little discernable impact historically.

This reinforces what I feel intuitively: that climate change is not the problem per se, the real problem is poverty and its interaction with higher temperatures. Therefore, policies that stymie growth in order to mitigate the effects of climate change or prevent further climate change must be approached with care. In fact, based on the evidence Dell et al. have produced, out of the three possible broad responses to climate change — mitigation, adaption and sustainable economic development — sustainable economic development looks the wisest by far.